The End is Nigh

Joe Heller

One week to goooo! Tra-la! Tra-loooo!

Indulge my political geek side for a moment!

I don't know about you, but I've been obsessively looking at polls in battleground states, both for the general election and for Senate seats. 

Right now, polls are very good for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris! But as we know from four years ago, polls can take a crap if citizens don't VOTE. 

And vote, we are. 

So far, over 62 million votes have been cast. Compared to this time four years ago? Today we have cast 15 million more than the total sum of early votes in 2016 -- but more than that, it's 45% of the TOTAL number of votes cast in 2016. And we still have a week to go, and the biggest voting day of all, November 3.

It's very good news! And great news that the postal service and election officials aren't overwhelmed with ballots right at the end.  

So, what do the polls tell us?

National polls have Biden ahead by nine points. That's quite a lead, but unfortunately we don't elect by popular vote. We elect by a system that the white patriarchy established; the stoooopid electoral college. 

How is Joe looking there? Pretty good, too. If the votes are cast as polling indicates, Joe is in very good shape to win his required 270 electoral college votes. Here are a few polls in key battleground states, as reported by FiveThirtyEight.

I especially like to look at states that 45 eked by during the 2016 election and states that may just yet turn surprisingly blue.

Michigan: In 2016, DJT squeaked by and won Michigan by 10,704 votes (a 0.23% margin). Today, Biden leads by eight points. Come on, Michiganders, VOTE!

Wisconsin: Similarly, Drumpf won Wisconsin in 2016 by a little more than 22,000 votes. The polls there show that Biden leads by seven points.

Pennsylvania was equally close (45 won by about 44,000 votes), and today Biden leads by five points in the polls.

Ohio has always been an important swing state through the decades. Ohio voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012, but in 2016, the odious one took the state handily. This year, it's neck-and-neck, with 45 holding a slim 1.5% lead.

North Carolina went for Obama in both elections but elected PoopHead in 2016, and this year Joe has a slim 2.5% lead in the polls. Know anyone in NC? Help them get to the polls!

Georgia, how we love thee and how we are so frustrated at your history of voter suppression! The Orange Menace won by five points in 2016. It's a dead tie today in Georgia. I'll be on the edge of my seat for that state. 

PESKY FLA: Florida, Florida. Our problem child. Donny won Florida by a slim 1.2% margin in 2016. The polls are quite tight today, but Biden is up in the polls by a little more than two points. Florida has lots of electoral votes. We need Florida. Vote, Florida, vote!

The November Surprise may be in Texas and Arizona. Dare it possible that Texas turn blue? There is speculation that it is trending that way. It's neck and neck in the polls today, and some pundits think it may actually flip. Arizona, famously pugnaciously Repug (think Sheriff Arpaio) is trending toward Biden by 2.9%. If Arizona flips, I can finally stop boycotting the state as I drive across from California to New Mexico and back. 

Love interactives? Try your hand at calling the general election with this interactive electoral map from Financial Times or this one from FiveThirtyEight.

OK, so what about the Senate?! We can actually flip the Senate! Oh golly that would be so great!

Here are nine Repug seats that may flip -- and we only need a net gain of four to take control of the Senate.

Colorado - John Hickenlooper has a pretty commanding 8% lead over incumbent Cory Gardner. Regret being 45's chief ass-kisser, Cory? (Joe is ahead by 13% in Colorado)

Arizona - it's close, but Dem Mark Kelly is poised to defeat incumbent Martha McSally. 

North Carolina - Woot! Cal Cunningham has been pulling ahead of Sen. Thom Tillis for weeks! 

Maine - Sara Gideon has a really good lead over two-faced Susan Collins. It'll be good to see Collins in the rear-view mirror. 

Iowa's race is really close between Joni Ernst and Theresa Greenfield. But Dem Greenfield has a good chance in that battle. 

Montana - It's a close race between Democrat Steve Bullock, current governor of Montana, vs. Rep incumbent Steve Daines. It would be great if Montana took a Dam seat in the Senate. 

Georgia -- Both Senate seats are up for grabs in Georgia, due to a special election for appointed Republican Kelly Loeffler. The races are tight and may end up in a run-off in January. 

And finally, 

South Carolina - Oh how yummy yummy it would be if 45's slobbering lap dog Lindsey Graham went down this year. His Dam challenger Jaime Harrison has truly been giving Lindsey a run for his money (and raising a ton more money, too - shattering records!). I think Harrison can pull off a win, amazingly, for the seat that Graham took over from nearly-dead 43-year senator Repug Strom Thurmond in 2003. Go, Jaime, goooooo!

I will tentatively add Kentucky to this list. Dem challenger Amy McGrath has been fighting a good fight. It's a long shot, but oh how delicious it would be if she sent McConnell home to sweet Kentucky. 

There are a couple Dem seats that are up for grabs:

Alabama, where Repug Tommy Tuberville has a commanding lead over Dem incumbent Doug Jones, will probably flip red, but Michigan is poised to keep its Democrat Senate seat for Sen. Gary Peters. His challenger, John James, is a long shot at this point.

There will be plenty of excitement a week from tonight! I hope we get some definitive results that night. Our Democracy will win.

If you haven't yet, please plan your ultimate act of resistance: VOTE!