I've outlined races before on this blog. Back on Independence Day, I looked at some House and Senate races in States near and dear to me. Last month I looked at how women have been entering politics in record numbers and how women's voting power will be a force to be reckoned with on Tuesday.
I wanted to just jot some notes about some of the upcoming decisions to see how they play out. On Tuesday night, we will all be glued to our TVs for the best reality show ever.
Now, we're ready.
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| Dave Granlund |
The Senate
It's been long surmised that the Democrats have too many barriers to overcome to take majority in the Senate, but anything is possible. We found that out the hard way back in 2016. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the Senate will flip. I know I'm a Pollyanna, but the Blue Tsunami really seems like it's coming. Here are a few really exciting races to watch.
BETO! in Texas! Go Beto! His poll numbers against SCROTUS's favorite immigrant (other than two of his three wives), Ted Cruz, have been improving. Polls vary, but the latest Emerson poll has Cruz with just a 3-point lead, with 2% undecided. This is the most exciting race in the country. It's a race between one of the most intelligent and charismatic up-and-coming Democrats vs. a slab of 10-day-old Texas steak.
Arizona: the open Senate seat is now considered a toss-up, but it WILL be filled by a woman! Woooo! Democrat Kyrsten Sinema has been gaining momentum against Republican Martha McSally.
Nevada may flip blue, if Democrat Jacky Rosen can defeat incumbent Republican Dean Heller. At this point, polls point to her having a slight lead.
I'm pulling for Heidi Heitkamp (D) to keep her seat in North Dakota. She courageously voted against the confirmation of Justice Kavenaugh, knowing that it would cost her politically in her deeply red home state. She's behind Republican Kevin Cramer in the polls, but never say never. Go, Heidi!
I talked before about Tennessee being an interesting Senate race, and indeed it looks like it has continued to tighten up. The candidates, Marsha Bredesen (R) and Phil Blackburn (D) are in a dead heat. Wouldn't it be exciting to flip a state like Tennessee?
The House
Pollyanna Schmollyanna. The House is going blue.
Here are exciting races in my home state of California.
CA - 10. Republican Jeff Denham vs. Dem Josh Harder. Denham is a TЯUMP supporter and handily won re-election in 2016 in this conservative district. It's an exciting race. Harder has been closing in.
CA - 39, 45, and 48. Orange County, California has long been solidly Republican, but the tide seems to be changing. In the 39th, it's a toss-up between Republican Young Kim and Democrat Gil Cisneros. The lead has traded back and forth several times. Right now, it looks like Cisneros has the lead. In CA 45, stalwart Republican incumbent Mimi Walters is fighting for her seat against unabashedly progressive Katie Porter. Republican Dana Rohrabacher hopes to hold on to his seat in the 48th, but faces a strong Democrat opponent in Harley Rouda. In my post in July, this seat was leaning Republican, but now it's a dead tie. Orange County! Talk of these kinds of tight races was unheard of in Orange County before now. This is why I think it's not just a blue wave, but a blue Tsunami coming!
CA - 22. I have to mention California's solid red District 22, home of Rep. Devin Nunes (R). He is projected to win handily, But I'm rooting for Andrew Janz to pull off the upsettiest of upsets in California history. I detest President Evil's lap-dog Devin Nunes.
I'll touch on just one non-California house race.
IA - 4 Republican Steve King vs. Democrat J.D. Scholten. I've referenced Rep. King a couple times on this blog. He is an unabashed racist and Neo-Nazi sympathizer. He has no place in our government, and I'm hoping that he will be booted. It's a tight race.
I would love to write and geek out over more of these races, but I'll have to point you to a couple sources that can better summarize the battlegrounds than I.
The New York Times has really nice interactive guides to the battleground Senate races and House races.
The Boston Globe has an "Ultimate Cheat Sheet" of House and Senate races to watch.
Vox outlines some house races.
The Hill looks at some house seats ready to flip.
Business Insider looks at some key Senate races.
And we need The Onion to keep our perspective on Senate races in check.
If you really want to dive into the numbers, check out FiveThirtyEight.com, Ballotpedia, or RealClearPolitics. You can get lost for days in those sites!
Why do I think it will be a Blue Tsunami? Because 750,000 women in Los Angeles and over 3 million around the country marched on January 22, 2017. Because airports around the country saw protesters of every size, shape, and color demanding action against the Muslim ban. Because the youth of Parkland, Florida, bravely rose up and brought the gun control conversation to new levels. Because intelligent, thinking citizens, which fill this country to the brim, find outrage in the War on Science. Because our citizens do not accept children being torn from their mothers and kept in cages. Because we are not a nation of hate and bigotry, and we are ready to show that. Because the Electoral College does not elect Members of Congress. Because the more SCROTUS fires up his base with his hateful rhetoric, the more he fires up the majority against him. Because the Left got a wake-up call that participation in our Democratic Republic cannot be taken for granted. Because we've been waiting for this day for two long years. Because, as Frederick Douglass once said, "Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will." We demand change. And we shall have it.
I'm pretty darn confident that Team Red is out of immunity tokens, and Team Blue will win the big prize. We need to get off of this freaking island. Let's steer our raft onto that big wave and ride!
Best Reality Show Ever! Tune in on Tuesday evening, November 6. And don't stop watching. Ever.
Edit to add: I've gotten some feedback that people are nervous. You aren't alone in your anxiety. This just in from last night's episode of Saturday Night Live:
Resist! Vote Democrat!
I am expecting to be disappointed, even though I agree with you - the average American isn't terribly bright or terribly well informed, and a lot of them make voting decisions in ways that are difficult for some of us to imagine. They like Trump because he talks like an un-educated person. I hope I am wrong.
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